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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History (ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society)

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Quantifying Counterfactual Military History (ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society)

4.85 29,472 ratings · 3,697 reviews
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Overview: Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications. Key Features:Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions.Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors.Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history.Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual historyWritten in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.

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Brennen Fagan
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Brennen Fagan is the author of several novels. Originally from the East Coast, they now live in the Midwest with family. In addition to writing, Brennen Fagan enjoys gardening, cooking, and reading way past bedtime. Their work often explores the complexities of everyday life and human relationships.

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Jacob Cruz
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An acceptable diversion. It possessed moments of brilliance, but the narrative felt slightly disjointed ultimately. Perfectly average.
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I find myself somewhat conflicted. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. A fair 3 stars.
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Betty Evans January 15, 2025
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Donna Anderson July 05, 2024
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Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Betty Phillips July 19, 2025
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I find myself somewhat conflicted. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. Perfectly average.
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Jessica Harris October 20, 2025
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Barbara Rodriguez May 04, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Steven Perez
Steven Perez August 02, 2025
Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. Worth every moment spent reading.
Michelle Diaz
Michelle Diaz July 10, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
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Robert Rivera August 02, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Andrew Ramirez September 29, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Karen Hernandez June 02, 2024
A very strong entry. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A very distinguished novel.
Donald Ramirez
Donald Ramirez December 15, 2025
A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
Ashley Baker
Ashley Baker May 09, 2025
A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
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A highly sophisticated read. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. Quite impressive overall.
Thomas Sanchez
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A very distinguished novel.
Betty Collins
Betty Collins May 24, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
Karen Harris
Karen Harris February 14, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A solid 4 stars from me.
Daniel Wright
Daniel Wright April 05, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
Sarah Nelson
Sarah Nelson October 19, 2024
I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Michelle Ramirez
Michelle Ramirez June 15, 2025
An acceptable diversion. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perfectly average.
Elizabeth Brown
Elizabeth Brown May 07, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. Quite impressive overall.
Robert Perez
Robert Perez December 17, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A solid 4 stars from me.
Patricia Hill
Patricia Hill May 18, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Gary  Davis
Gary Davis June 07, 2024
I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Paul Wilson
Paul Wilson November 26, 2025
I find myself somewhat conflicted. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
Rebecca Wright
Rebecca Wright May 23, 2024
A decent, if standard, experience. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. Suitable if your reading queue is empty.
Ashley Baker
Ashley Baker May 19, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Sharon Hill
Sharon Hill February 25, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Dorothy Roberts
Dorothy Roberts December 20, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Jacob Rivera
Jacob Rivera November 17, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
William Hernandez
William Hernandez August 09, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
Dorothy Brown
Dorothy Brown November 22, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Elizabeth Phillips
Elizabeth Phillips November 02, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
Ashley Hall
Ashley Hall July 12, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Jennifer Brown
Jennifer Brown April 05, 2025
A decent, if standard, experience. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. A fair 3 stars.
Dorothy White
Dorothy White October 24, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Elizabeth Phillips
Elizabeth Phillips April 11, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Joseph Smith
Joseph Smith September 08, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem.
Edward Adams
Edward Adams September 11, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Karen Brown
Karen Brown March 30, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
Robert Wright
Robert Wright October 11, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Edward Flores
Edward Flores October 22, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Laura Harris
Laura Harris September 11, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
George Rivera
George Rivera October 11, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
Donna Scott
Donna Scott October 25, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A very distinguished novel.
John Roberts
John Roberts March 13, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Dorothy Brown
Dorothy Brown February 10, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
Dorothy Ramirez
Dorothy Ramirez November 06, 2024
It was adequate. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. A fair 3 stars.
Betty Gomez
Betty Gomez October 01, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A very distinguished novel.
Emily Green
Emily Green October 17, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A very distinguished novel.
Elizabeth Diaz
Elizabeth Diaz February 20, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
Ashley Roberts
Ashley Roberts June 04, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Dorothy Clark
Dorothy Clark November 18, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
Sarah White
Sarah White December 25, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Barbara  Davis
Barbara Davis September 28, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. Quite impressive overall.
Rebecca Walker
Rebecca Walker December 06, 2024
I find myself somewhat conflicted. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. Suitable if your reading queue is empty.
Steven Perez
Steven Perez November 11, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Mark Harris
Mark Harris December 18, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Christopher  Parker
Christopher Parker December 08, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
Steven Sanchez
Steven Sanchez February 15, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A very distinguished novel.
Kevin Lewis
Kevin Lewis March 19, 2024
I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
James Johnson
James Johnson March 03, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
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